Emas menurun selepas Trump menjadi Presiden US yang ke 45

Pasaran emas terus melemah lagi selepas pemilihan Donald Trump menjadi Presiden US yang ke 45.









Nak Shopping Lazada?

Gold Rebounds

Gold, trading little changed in New York, rebounded from earlier losses after U.S. employers added fewers workers than forecast last month, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve will press on with stimulus efforts.

The 162,000 increase in payrolls last month was the smallest in four months and trailed the median projection of 185,000 in a Bloomberg survey, Labor Department figures showed today. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month that it’s too early to decide whether to begin scaling back debt purchases in September, after saying on June 19 that bond buying could slow if the economy improves.

“The payrolls data leave much to be desired for the economy, and the Fed may not apply the brakes on stimulus just yet,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Investors continue to be very cautious on mixed data signals.”

Gold futures for December delivery rose less than 0.1 percent to $1,311.70 an ounce at 9:27 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after dropping as much as 2.2 percent to $1,282.40, the lowest since July 18.

Trading was 48 percent above the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Prices dropped 22 percent this year through yesterday after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value and amid concern the Fed will reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Gold more than doubled from 2008 to a record $1,923.70 in September 2011 as the central bank bought more than $2 trillion of debt.

Silver futures for September delivery jumped 1.5 percent to $19.91 an ounce in New York.

#source

Obama to Call

Obama, in a speech later today in Chattanooga, Tennessee, will argue that years of budget fights have diverted attention from the need to help middle-income Americans recover from the recession, according to administration officials.

President Barack Obama, seeking to offer fresh economic proposals that could pass a gridlocked Congress, will call for a restructuring of business taxes so long as the initial revenue generated goes toward job creation.

Obama, in a speech later today in Chattanooga, Tennessee, will argue that years of budget fights have diverted attention from the need to help middle-income Americans recover from the recession, according to administration officials.

As an alternative to seeking quick passage of the deficit-reduction formula that has eluded lawmakers for two years --some combination of increased tax revenue and entitlement curbs -- Obama will propose spending more on job creation efforts. The initiatives would include help for manufacturing, worker training, and infrastructure improvements.

The programs would be funded with a one-time transition fee associated with the $2 trillion in foreign earnings that are currently held overseas, said an administration official who asked not to be identified to discuss details before the speech.

The officials declined to specify how much money would be generated and didn’t detail how it would be structured. The proposal marks a shift for Obama, who has previously called for rewriting individual and business income tax law together.

“The President will call on Washington to work on a grand bargain focused on middle class jobs by pairing reform of the business tax code with a significant investment in middle class jobs,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a senior adviser to the president.

#source

Gold Up, But....

INVESTMENT GOLD prices reversed an overnight drop of $10 per ounce to trade above $1335 lunchtime Monday in London, gaining in what dealers called "very quiet" trade ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve policy statement on Wednesday and Friday's US payrolls data for June.

Silver prices also rallied from an earlier drop, adding 1.9% to trade above $20.10 per ounce.

Commodities, European equities and major government bond prices held flat, with economists forecasting "no change" in either Fed policy or the key language around reducing QE bond purchases in Wednesday's announcement.

Japanese stock markets fell hard as the Yen rose on the currency markets.

"We expect the FOMC meeting and the US payrolls report will be the highlights this week," says a note from commodity and investment analysts at Germany's Deutsche Bank.

"A soft employment report would amplify the more dovish sentiment on [QE] tapering and sustain the cautious rebound in gold prices."

"Gold has made a terrific recovery," Bloomberg quotes $3 billion fund manager Donald Selkin at National Securities Corp. in New York, "but there's not too much to the upside for now.

"People are going to wait and see what the Fed is going to do."

Gold investment positions in exchange-traded funds "have continued to trickle lower," notes Barclays in London, pointing to the 23% drop from end-2012's record levels.

The giant SPDR Gold Trust shed another 5 tonnes last week, taking the bullion needed to back its shareholders' investment to new four-and-a-half year lows below 928 tonnes.

Should gold prices slip back below $1300 per ounce, warns Barclays, "an additional 160 tonnes [of gold ETF investment] become loss-making."

New gold ETFs traded for the first time in China today both slipped 1% in value as prices dropped.

Together, the Huaan and Guotai gold ETFs fell well over two-thirds short of their sponsors' investment targets, raising less than $261 million between them.

Ahead of the coming US Fed and jobs data decision, hedge funds and other professional speculators raised their "net long" position on US gold futures to a 6-week high of nearly 180 tonnes in the week-ending last Tuesday, new data from US regulator the CFTC showed Friday.

Private investors, however - the so-called "unreportable" category of speculative gold futures traders - meantime cut their net long position almost to zero, with bearish bets very nearly equal to bullish contracts.

That position peaked at 195 tonnes equivalent in October 2012, just as gold prices began their descent from $1800 per ounce.

"Short positioning had become quite extreme," says a note from Swiss investment bank and London gold market-maker UBS. So there has been "some scaling back, especially ahead of key risk events this week.

"Anticipation of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday is likely to deter large position-taking and result in more subdued market activity in the next few days."

Over in India - currently world No.1 for gold demand, but set to be eclipsed by China this year - prices for gold rose sharply on Monday as what local dealers called a "massive shortage" of metal due to government import restrictions bit harder.

Indian premiums over and above international benchmarks hit up to $30 per ounce, Reuters reports, quoting Bachhraj Bamalwa of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.

#source

Gold Traders Most Bullish in 5 Weeks After Fed: Commodities

"If you don't believe gold could be worth more than $2000 per ounce in a few month then you will regret it."



Gold traders are the most bullish in five weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. still needs stimulus.

Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, nine were bearish and three neutral. Gold fell 23 percent last quarter, with the decline accelerating after the Fed chairman said June 19 that bond buying could slow if the economy improves. Unprecedented money printing by central banks since the global recession boosted bullion buying as a hedge against inflation.

Gold is heading for the first annual drop in 13 years after some investors lost faith in it as a store of value. The retreat in prices to a 34-month low on June 28 spurred demand for jewelry and gold coins, diminishing supply and driving the cost of borrowing the metal to a 4 1/2-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“With the Fed comments, with the increased cost of funding a short position and some recalibration in peoples’ thinking about the end of quantitative easing, the onus is really on the bears now,” said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Sharps Pixley Ltd., a brokerage handling physical bullion in London. “Physical demand is supporting the market very nicely.”

Physical Demand

Jewelry and coin demand around the world surged after gold dropped into a bear market in April. The U.S. Mint sold 21,000 ounces of American Eagle coins so far this month, on course to beat the 57,000-ounce June total, data on its website show.

Demand is weakening elsewhere, with Australia’s Perth Mint saying its coin and bar sales dropped for a second month in June, falling 47 percent. Physical consumption isn’t as strong as in April, partly because India, the biggest buyer, imposed curbs on imports last month to trim its trade deficit, Standard Chartered said. Indian imports probably slid 80 percent in June and will be “weak” in July and August, the bank estimates.

Investors sold 645.45 metric tons from gold-backed exchange-traded products this year, erasing $60 billion from the value of the funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings reached 1,983.6 tons this week, the lowest since May 2010. Billionaire John Paulson’s PFR Gold Fund tumbled 23 percent in June, extending this year’s loss to 65 percent. He owns the largest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion ETP.

#source

Gold Slips After 4 days

Gold prices eased Friday after four sessions of gains, yet still on track for its biggest weekly performance since October 2011 after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank's highly accommodative monetary policy would be needed for the foreseeable future.

As of (10:02 GMT+3) gold for immediate delivery fell 0.39 percent or 4.98 points to trade at $ 1,276.45 after opening at $1,266.69, having earlier hit a high of $1,298.64, and a low of $1,264.18.

Minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting Wednesday showed many policymakers felt the stimulus program should be scaled back this year, but many wanted reassurance the U.S. jobs recovery was on solid ground.

Meanwhile, Bernanke said the bank will likely keep at least some of its easy-money policies amid high unemployment rates and low inflation levels. Bernanke reiterated that the Fed won't consider raising short-term rates until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5%.

The dollar dropped by the most since October 2011 after Fed’s Bernanke said the U.S. economy still requires monetary stimulus to bolster growth and lower unemployment, while policy makers wanted more signs the labor market is improving before slowing bond purchases.

The USDIX is currently trading around 83.05 after opening at 82.92, after hitting a high of 83.07and a low of 82.87.

In the same vein, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept monetary policy steady at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Thursday, but raised its assessment of the economy. Policy makers voted unanimously to maintain its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen.

Other precious metals were as follows:

• Silver dropped 0.91% to trade around $ 19.80
• Platinum lost 0.13% to $ 1,401.05
• Palladium inched 21% down to $ 717.50

China's finance minister, Lou Jiwei, scaled down growth expectations by predicting only a 7 percent rise this year, fueling worries about growth in the world’s second largest gold consumer after India.

Speaking in Washington, Jiwei said he expects growth to come in at 7 percent this year after a slew of recent disappointing trade and manufacturing figures, the official Xinhua news agency said on Friday, which would be below the government's official forecast.

The statistics bureau reports on second-quarter gross domestic product are due on July 15, with the median estimate of analysts for a 7.5 percent increase from last year

#source

Physical gold demand

U.S. DOLLAR gold prices rose 1.1% in Asian and London trade Wednesday morning, nearing yesterday's 1-week highs at $1260 per ounce as the rate for borrowing gold continued to rise.

Silver prices rose 1.8% from an overnight low at $19.05 per ounce.

Equity markets slipped while commodities rose with major government bond prices, nudging 10-year US Treasury yields further back from Monday's 2.73% - their highest level since August 2011.

Interest rates on weaker Eurozone debt rose, however, after ratings agency S&P cut Italy's long-term credit to BBB, just two notches above "junk" status.

"There has been some [gold] borrowing interest recently," the FT quotes Swiss bank UBS's precious metals strategist Joni Teves.

"It's related to the demand for physical," with premiums in Shanghai continuing to hold $40 per ounce above London's benchmark.

"As wholesalers, refiners and retailers of investment products are scouring for the metal to make physical products," agrees consultancy CPM Group's head Jeffrey Christian, speaking to Reuters, "some of them are actually borrowing the gold in advance."

After falling into negative territory for the first time in 5 years on Monday, the forward rate offered by London bullion banks fell further to -0.12% on 1-month swaps today.

The offered rate is paid to borrowers who are willing to swap cash for gold, and so bear the cost of storage and lost interest payments for the period of the swap.

Data from trade association the London Bullion Market Association show gold offered rates were last negative - meaning that gold owners are demanding payment, rather than offering it - in November 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

One-month rates have only been negative on 12 trading days in the LBMA's twenty-four year records.

The most negative rate - meaning the highest rate demanded by large gold owners - came at -4.53% in September 1999, when European central banks agreed to cap their annual gold sales. A sharp jump in gold prices forced a scramble amongst gold mining companies who, after a near two-decade bear market, had borrowed and sold gold for fear of further price drops.

The rising price and cost of borrowing gold led to the near-bankruptcy of Ghana miner Ashanti.

"[The negative rate] is important news," says refining and finance group MKS's daily note.

"It has piqued people's interest" in buying gold to profit from a squeeze on bearish traders, the FT quotes a senior bullion banker, with the turnaround in the gold borrowing rate helping support prices after the worst quarterly drop in three decades.

Barring a spike in May this year, the overall return to large gold owners for offering metal for a 1-month swap and earning the interbank interest rate on the cash received hit its best level since February 2009 at 0.30% annualized.

Meantime in Asia on Wednesday, gold retailers in India - the world's No.1 consumer market - agreed Wednesday to suspend further sales of gold coins and investment bars, meeting a government plea for help in reducing gold bullion imports.

The All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, which this week proposed a gold-deposit banking scheme to "mobilize" existing households stockpiles and so reduce gold imports, said more than two-in-three of its 40,000 members have agreed to the ban.

Physical gold demand from wholesalers in China, the world's No.2 consumer, was strong overnight according to dealers.

Looking at recent weak economic data from China, "A hard landing could shake faith in the government," says a note on gold investing from Barclays Research, and lead to a big fall in Yuan-denominated assets.

"[That] could mean gold becomes important for domestic investors to hedge what they may view as a greater set of risks than previously," reckons Barclays commodities analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.

#source