Friday, June 21, 2013

Gold Price Back at 2010

Gold and silver fell to their lowest levels since September 2010 Thursday, with gold dropping through $1300 per ounce during London trading and silver falling below $20 an ounce.
Stocks and commodities also fell and the US Dollar strengthened after US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke told a press conference that "the underlying factors are improving" in the US economy, adding that the Federal Open Market Committee could begin to scale back its $85 billion-a-month asset purchases later this year, a process that has become known as 'tapering'.
"Although the Committee left the pace of purchases unchanged," Bernanke told a press conference after the FOMC's latest policy meeting Wednesday, "it has stated that it may vary the pace of purchases as economic conditions evolve... the economic outcomes that the Committee sees as most likely involve continuing gains in labor markets, supported by moderate growth that picks up over the next several quarters."
Bernanke went on to say that the FOMC expects inflation to move back up towards the Fed's 2% target "over time".
"If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast," Bernanke said, "the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year... if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear."
Bernanke also reiterated that the FOMC views an unemployment rate of 6.5% as a pre-requisite before the Fed's policy interest rate should be raised, but added that it is "a threshold, not a trigger" and that the Fed may continue to target near-zero rates for some time after that level is reached.
The economic projections of individual FOMC members published yesterday show most expect 2015 to be the year when the Fed makes its first interest rate hike.
Bond market interest rates have risen in recent weeks, with investor selling pushing down bond prices and thus raising yields.
The US Dollar meantime rallied against other major currencies following Wednesday's Fed decision and press conference. The Euro, which started yesterday trading near four-month highs against the Dollar, fell 1.5% to $1.32.
"The combination of Fed tapering, a spike in nominal yields and a stronger Dollar has put gold under some considerable pressure," says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
"The markets are definitely not prepared to wait until the tapering actually begins."
By late morning in London, gold was down 7% on where it started the week, with silver down 10%.
Gold prices in Euros meantime fell below €1000 an ounce for the first time since April 2011 Thursday, as gold in Sterling fell to £833 an ounce, its lowest level since February 2011.
Bullion holdings backing the world's biggest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) dropped below 1000 tonnes for the first time since February 2009 yesterday. The GLD has seen outflows equivalent to 26% of the gold it held at the start of the year.
"The lower we go, the more it will encourage ETF liquidation," says David Govett, head of precious metals at broker Marex Spectron.
"The only hope for the market at the moment is for the sort of physical demand we saw a few months ago to surface again. This usually takes a day or two to come forward as the market digests the moves, so I doubt we will see much today."
Back in April, a sharp drop in the gold price was followed by a surge in physical gold buying around the world.
"With the negative sentiment that we have in gold currently," adds Societe Generale cross-commodity strategist Mark Keenan, we really do need to see a significant amount of physical buying in order to stabilize the market – which we are not seeing."
"I wouldn't be in a rush to say it's the end of gold," says Sydney-based Nomura analyst Amber MacKinnon.
"This is definitely a big turning point. But though we have seen some reasonable amount of stability in the US economy, there is still a long way to run...early next year will be pretty telling in terms of economic data. We'll have to see how [US] unemployment reacts to any scale-back in [Fed] bond purchases."
Across the Atlantic, UK retail sales growth for May exceeded analysts' expectations, with retail sales up 1.9% compared to a year earlier.

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Gold Prices "Higher for Now" But China's "Frenzied Buying" Questioned as Japan Fails to Beat Deflation

GOLD PRICES slipped from a new 2-week high in London trade Friday morning, nearing the weekend 2.9% above last week's finish, but losing more than 4.6% from the start of May.
Silver also edged lower, cutting its weekly gain to 0.3% and standing 7.6% lower for the month.
European stock markets meantime extended this week's drop, but held onto better than 5% gains for May.
"The kind of frenzied gold buying in late April and early May won't be repeated," said Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association, overnight to Bloomberg.
Zhang's comments came as market-development group the World Gold Council forecast record quarterly gold demand amongst Asian households for April to July.
Gold prices in India - the world's heaviest gold-buying nation - this week slipped back to $4 over international benchmarks from $20 per ounce a fortnight ago, Reuters reports.
Gold gifts will be given to some 6.6 million Chinese brides in 2013, the China Gold Association says. But bargain-hunting to acquire that jewelry may have accounted for a large part of April's surge in demand, sparked by a 15% drop in world gold prices, Zhang believes.
China's gold imports through Hong Kong had already doubled to record monthly levels in March, however.
Here in London, gold dealing volumes through the largest bullion banks - centre of the world's wholesale gold trade - rose 10% by weight in April to hit a 20-month high, trade body the London Bullion Market Association said in new data Thursday.
Silver volumes rose 25% to the highest level in 16 months. Trade in both metals rose much less sharply by value, however, growing 3.1% and 9.2% respectively.
"[Gold's] ability to hold above $1410 on a close basis removes some of the bearish pressure," says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta bank.
"Support now seen at $1394 with resistance at $1425."
"[Thursday's] renewed price slide on the Nikkei," says Germany's Commerzbank, "has made it clear once more that the latest boom on the equity markets is no one-way street.
"This evidently makes gold more attractive in the eyes of some market players, as is also evidenced by lower E.T.F. outflows."
After rising for the first time in 3 weeks on Wednesday, gold bullion holdings were unchanged Thursday for the world's largest exchange-traded gold trust fund, the SPDR (ticker: GLD).
Japan's Nikkei stock index bounced Friday from its second slump in a week, but still ended the month 13% below mid-May's new 5-year highs.
New data meantime showed Japan's industrial production beating analyst forecasts with 1.7% annual growth in April.
Despite aggressive new money-creation by the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing program, however, consumer prices continued to fall, down 0.4% last month from March for the sixth consecutive month of deflation.
"The short-term trend [in gold prices] seems to be higher for the moment," says the latest note from brokers INTL FC Stone.
"[But] we think gold prices will be lower by year-end...considering that by then, the US Fed should give the markets more clarity as to when it is going to step back [from quantitative easing] if it hasn't done so already."
"Based on what the Fed is doing now," said Anthony Scaramucci, partner at the $7.6 billion SkyBridge Capital asset managers, to CNBC yesterday, "giving us more transparency, I'm not a buyer of gold here."
"Inflation is going to hit at some point. But it's pretty far out based on macro econometric estimates

Monday, June 10, 2013

Gold investment

Lama giler tak cerita pasal GOLD INVESTMENT

Cuma nak bgtahu satu perkara sahaja. Macam biasa, harga emas fizikal yg tengah murah macam sekarang ni, kebanyakan org buat macam tak tahu, tak nak ambil tahu, malas nak ambil kisah. "Takpe, harga dah stabil dah tuuu... Esok lusa turun lagi" 

Macam biasa juga, bila harga dah meroket tinggi, masa tu orang ramai akan berebut2 membeli, dgn harga mahal. Kalau boleh buat loan, depa buat loan. Kalau ada harta, kasi pajak atau jual kononnya harga dijamin akan naik terus.

Akan keluar plak statement2, posting2 dari ejen2 penjual emas, khusuanya di FB:
1. Harga emas dah naik!!
2. Emas bakal mencecah USD2000 hujung tahun ini
3. Harga emas sekarang paling murah berbanding tahun lepas
4. Kenaikan emas fizikal setahun mencecah 30%
Dan bebagai bagai posting. Ini semua memanikkan situasi orang ramai.

Actually, kenaikan penurunan harga emas dunia ini dipengaruhi oleh faktor "Human Behavior". Mean kita senang nak pantau/rasa & lihat.

Contoh: Harga emas bukan naik lepas Raya Cina? Seperti beberapa posting yg dilihat dulu di FB, bukaaan... Orang2 cina takdenya membeli emas2 banyak sblm mereka ni raya atau makan besar malam tu... Karuuutt.. Kalau naik, itu adalah pengaruh dari EKONOMI BESAR DUNIA.

Now, ekonomi dunia amat stabil. Saham2 di kebanyakan negara besar didunia didagangkan dengan 'Kemas', w/pun baru2 ini ada sedikit penurunan. Itupun disebabkan pengambilan untung Fund Manager di 'sana'.
So, pilihan ditangan masing2.